Locals. Psychologically, victims of crime want to believe that "someone else" from WAY FAR AWAY came around and just happened to see and then steal something. Almost never true.
What's almost always true is that your immediate neighbors did it. They are the ones that know when you are up, asleep, moving around, have dogs, likely to be armed, how many of you there are, etc...
It's your next door neighbors. Yes, those people. The one with the 20-something ne-er-do-well son that "used to have a drug problem", but "he's all better now", even though he doesn't work, still lives with his parents and has very odd hours, sleeping in the middle of the day and doing who-knows-what in the middle of the night. He'll tell you he's a "night owl" or "nocturnal" which translates directly to "meth addict". Most of it it is right there in front of you and if you had been paying attention you'd have seen it long before this happened, but now that it's happened the question is whether or not you are going to see it.